CSU and TSR Project a Below-Average 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Wunderground Category 6 article: CSU and TSR Project a Below-Average 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

by Dr. Jeff Masters  ·  April 06, 2017, 10:28 AM

A slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2017, said the hurricane forecasting team from Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 6. Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with new coauthor Dr. Michael Bell, the CSU team is calling for an Atlantic hurricane season with 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 75. The long-term averages for the period 1981 – 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 92. The CSU outlook also calls for a 42% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2017, with a 24% chance for the East Coast and Florida Peninsula and a 24% chance for the Gulf Coast. The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane. All of these probabilities are slightly below the long-term numbers from the last century.

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